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Cold fronts this week offer chance of rain so far elusive in past 2 months

The stretches of gorgeous weather in Central Texas that we’ve seen all this month will be interrupted by cold fronts this week that could introduce a slight chance of rain to the region — remember what that was like?



One cold front already swung through the state on Sunday, with cooler northerly winds sweeping out humid air and clouds from the Austin area.


Monday is expected to be mostly sunny with temperatures staying below 72 degrees, according the National Weather Service forecast. That daytime high is much closer to normal for this time of year in Austin, according to climate data.


November so far has been much warmer than normal and dry as a bone. As of Sunday, the average temperature for the month — taken from observed daily highs and lows —was 68.8 degrees, which is about 6 degrees warmer than normal.


Rainfall recorded at Camp Mabry, site of Austin’s main weather station, is practically nonexistent. In a month that normally produces up to 2.96 inches of rain, gauges at Camp Mabry have caught only a trace of precipitation so far.


Gauges at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, site of the city’s other major weather station, have recorded a minuscule amount of 0.01 inches of rain.



The northerly winds on Monday will become balmy southeast breezes in the afternoon that will pull in more clouds and humidity from the Gulf of Mexico. The overcast skies also will help keep temperatures above 61 degrees at night, forecasters say.


By Tuesday, increasing sunshine will send temperatures as high as 80 degrees again, amid blustery southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts as strong as 25 mph.


The elusive chance of rain in Austin is highest on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, when the second cold front of the week arrives, bringing a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms around or after midnight.



The noticeable effects of the cold front on Wednesday will include bright, cloudless skies and daytime temperatures mostly in the 50s and 60s. Warm and humid air will be replaced by strong, dry north winds of 5 to 10 mph that could include gusts as strong as 20 mph.


Clear skies will continue Wednesday evening, which could see temperatures sink to as low as 49 degrees overnight. Northeast winds around 5 mph should calm after midnight.


Although the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued advice last week that urges the public to stay home to best protect themselves and others from getting or spreading the coronavirus, some folks might want to spend part of the holiday outside in their yards. Thanksgiving Day is expected to be mostly sunny with a high near 76.



One thing forecasters said people can be thankful for at the dinner table is the third cold front of the week arriving by Friday morning and bringing as much as a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms.


“While there continues to be some disagreement among the models in handling the speed and strength of this system, we should see enough moisture and lift to warrant a mention of rain for most of South-Central Texas late in the forecast period,” the weather service said in a bulletin Sunday.


As sure as forecasters are of the Friday cold front, they know even computers can’t calculate how fickle Texas weather can be.



“Similar to previous forecasters here, we will not go too high with our rain chances just yet, as confidence is not terribly high in model performance that far out,” they said.

Source:https://www.statesman.com/news/20201122/cold-fronts-this-week-offer-chance-of-rain-so-far-elusive-in-past-2-months

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