Dow Jones Futures: Indexes Weaken, But Stock Market Reality Worse; Tesla Launches FSD Subscriptions

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Dow Jones futures volition unfastened Sunday afternoon, on with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Tesla (TSLA) launched a subscription enactment for its "Full Self-Driving" operator assistance programme arsenic an alternate to paying a large interest upfront. An OPEC+ gathering volition instrumentality spot Sunday to resoluteness a  crude lipid accumulation deal.

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The banal marketplace rally showed further weakness precocious past week, with Apple (AAPL) and different megacaps nary longer providing cover. The large indexes are starting to propulsion back, particularly the Nasdaq. But different indicators are sending more-negative signals, from declining marketplace breadth to starring stocks coming nether pressure.

Energy stocks ran retired of gas, with Callon Petroleum (CPE) flashing aggregate large merchantability signals arsenic it plunged. Roku (ROKU) and Nvidia (NVDA) sold off, undercutting cardinal short-term averages. ASML (ASML) reversed from grounds highs up of net this week. Finally, Tesla stock fell backmost toward semipermanent enactment arsenic recovering erstwhile leaders proceed July retreats.

Tesla stock, Nvidia and ASML are connected IBD Leaderboard, portion Roku banal is connected the Leaderboard watchlist. ASML banal is connected IBD Long-Term Leaders. Nvidia banal and ASML are connected the IBD 50. CPE banal was Friday's IBD Stock Of The Day due to the fact that of its merchantability signals.

OPEC+ Meeting Sunday

OPEC and cardinal allies specified arsenic Russia volition clasp a virtual gathering Sunday — 6 a.m. ET — arsenic OPEC+ gets adjacent to a accumulation increase. Earlier this month, the United Arab Emirates blocked a deal, demanding higher output for itself. Last week, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates agreed connected a compromise. OPEC ministers from respective countries, see Saudi Arabia and UAE, met online Saturday.

Crude lipid prices fell past week, portion galore vigor stocks sold disconnected hard.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures unfastened astatine 6 p.m. ET connected Sunday, on with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

Remember that overnight enactment successful Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't needfully construe into existent trading successful the adjacent regular stock market session.


Join IBD experts arsenic they analyse actionable stocks successful the banal marketplace rally connected IBD Live


Coronavirus News

Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 190.83 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 4.10 million.

Coronavirus cases successful the U.S. person deed 34.95 million, with deaths supra 624,000.

Stock Market Rally Last Week

Stock marketplace rally woes expanded and became much evident arsenic the week wore on.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% successful past week's stock marketplace trading. The S&P 500 scale sank 1%. The Nasdaq composite slumped 1.9%, though the Nasdaq 100 lone gave up 0.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 tumbled 5.05%.

Apple banal roseate 1% past week, the seventh consecutive play gain, adjacent with Friday's 1.4% retreat.


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Top ETFs

Growth and assemblage ETFs showed continued weakness.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) slumped 4%, portion the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) gave up 2%.  The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) retreated 2.5%, adjacent with large constituent Microsoft (MSFT) rising for yet different week. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) slumped astir 4% to beneath its 50-day line, reversing painfully from Wednesday's all-time high. Nvidia and ASML banal are large SMH holdings.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) tumbled 6.6% to the lowest constituent since the extremity of April. Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) sank 2.5%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) descended 6.5%, continuing a agelong slide. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) retreated 3.1%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) plunged 7.8% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) dipped 1.6%.

Reflecting more-speculative communicative stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) skidded 7.2% past week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) plunged 7.8%. ARKK fell done its 200-day moving mean but held its 50-day line. ARKG slammed beneath levels. Tesla banal is the largest holding crossed ARK Invest's ETFs.


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Tesla FSD Subscriptions

Tesla is present offering drivers an FSD subscription, charging $199 a period alternatively of a level $10,000 fee. That could unfastened a big, dependable gross watercourse for the EV giant.

Despite the Full Self-Driving name, FSD does not connection afloat self-driving. It is simply a Level 2 driver-assist strategy requiring a quality operator to beryllium alert and acceptable to instrumentality implicit the instrumentality astatine immoderate moment.

FSD subscriptions, agelong promised, comes little than a week aft Tesla released its FSD Beta V9, its latest trial mentation of its FSD software, present lone relying connected vision. A prime radical of Tesla drivers are utilizing FSD Beta connected nationalist roads. A slew of videos amusement that FSD Beta inactive requires important quality interventions.

Tesla CEOElon Musk, who had touted Beta V9 arsenic being a immense advance, this past week said large improvements whitethorn travel successful the adjacent version, oregon the next.

Meanwhile, respective different companies are investigating L4 systems, sometimes without quality drivers astatine all, including Google-owned Waymo, Argo, controlled by Ford (F) and Volkswagen (VWAGY), Amazon-owned Zoox and Cruise, bulk owned by General Motors (GM).

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock started past week strong, rising 4.4% connected Monday and moving Tuesday greeting conscionable beneath an assertive 700.10 entry. But shares reversed lower, and kept sliding. For the week, TSLA banal gave up 1.9% to 644.22.

On the positive side, Tesla banal is holding conscionable supra its 200-day and 50-day lines. Compared to ARKK, galore EV rivals oregon highly valued maturation generally, Tesla banal hasn't fallen excessively hard. Then again, the EV person didn't rally arsenic overmuch arsenic galore akin stocks from mid-May to precocious June.

The relative spot line for TSLA banal is not acold supra aboriginal June's nine-month low.

Tesla net are owed July 26.

Callon Petroleum Stock

CPE banal plunged astir 10% connected Friday and 24% for the week. The shale lipid shaper round-tripped a 43% summation and past some. Callon Petroleum besides fell decisively beneath the 10-week enactment for the archetypal clip since the commencement of its large tally successful precocious 2020. Both are precise beardown merchantability signals. Investors who bought CPE banal retired of the past basal should person taken astatine slightest partial profits by the clip it undercut its 21-day line. Even semipermanent investors mightiness person wanted to chopped Callon banal escaped aft past week.

As the XLE ETF showed, vigor stocks tumbled this week arsenic lipid prices pulled backmost from multi-year highs. CPE banal and different vigor stocks person sold disconnected acold much than lipid prices. Then again, they ran up acold much than lipid prices.

Nvidia Stock

Nvidia banal tumbled 9.8% past week, falling importantly beneath its 21-day exponential moving average and starting to attack its 50-day/10-week. The chipmaker has been 1 of the biggest leaders since precocious May.

Investors who bought betwixt precocious May and aboriginal June mightiness person taken immoderate profits astatine the 21-day enactment oregon adjacent earlier. Recent investors whitethorn privation to merchantability retired if Nvidia banal decisively breaks the 10-week line. Long-term holders person earned the close to clasp NVDA banal longer if they wish.

ASML Stock

ASML banal deed a grounds precocious connected Wednesday, similar the SMH ETF, but closed disconnected highs. Shares of the Dutch chip-equipment shaper past fell solidly connected Thursday and Friday. ASML banal edged down conscionable 0.6%, but closed adjacent the debased of its play range.

ASML net are connected pat Wednesday. That report, on with laggard Intel (INTC) connected Thursday, volition beryllium cardinal for the semiconductor sector.

Roku Stock

Roku banal fell 7.3% to 399.99 past week, aft initially flashing an assertive introduction connected Monday. Shares fell beneath their 21-day, wherever they recovered enactment connected July 8, during a short-lived marketplace retreat. Investors who bought arsenic it bounced connected July 8 are present sitting connected losses of 5% oregon more.

Roku banal is holding, for now, supra an aboriginal introduction oregon double-bottom bargain constituent astatine 397.79. The authoritative bargain constituent is 463.09, from a grip entry, according to MarketSmith analysis.

Market Rally Analysis

The Nasdaq composite fell beneath its 21-day enactment connected Friday, the archetypal wide motion of occupation connected the large indexes. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are approaching their 21-day averages. Apple banal and tech megacaps had masked weakness, but adjacent they were starting to travel backmost by the extremity of the week.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 has plunged beneath its 50-day enactment to a one-month low. Sector and maturation ETFs showed akin weakness.

Stock marketplace rally woes started to go evident mid-week and particularly Thursday and Friday. On Wednesday, Upwork (UPWK) and caller IPO Figs (FIGS) plunged. Other breakouts and buying opportunities faltered, portion large winners specified arsenic Nvidia banal and Callon Petroleum began selling off.

But the marketplace rally has been struggling each month. The advance/decline enactment has been deteriorating for weeks. New lows are easy beating caller highs connected the Nasdaq, contempt it being adjacent all-time levels.

Ideally, Apple stock, Microsoft and a fewer extended megacaps would dilatory down for a fewer weeks portion marketplace breadth returns and breakouts enactment again. But investors should enactment connected their watchlists, not their privation lists.


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What To Do Now

Investors person to beryllium much defensive, hopefully slashing vulnerability implicit the past week oregon two. Get escaped of losers and astatine slightest slash positions with humble gains that are starting to slice away. If stocks are falling backmost from coagulated gains, instrumentality astatine slightest partial profits. If you person stocks that are inactive doing well, you tin clasp on, but you inactive mightiness privation to merchantability immoderate shares into strength. That tin marque it easier to clasp a halfway presumption as, say, Nvidia stock, falls backmost toward the 50-day line.

This is not a bully clip to beryllium making buys. There aren't galore bully setups ... and lately stocks mounting up person been setups for too-eager investors. New buys aren't working, which isn't astonishing with leaders and astir of the marketplace successful retreat.

If you consciousness the request to marque a intelligence wellness buy, marque it a tiny presumption and person your exit strategy successful hand.

It's astir apt a amended thought to hold for the marketplace to amended earlier adding exposure. That could hap quickly: Many starring stocks are forming handles oregon uncovering enactment astatine moving averages, including Roku stock. But the marketplace rally hasn't fixed immoderate denotation that it's acceptable to revive with broader participation.

Meanwhile, earnings play is heating up, different chaotic paper for a shaky market.

Read The Big Picture every time to enactment successful sync with the marketplace absorption and starring stocks and sectors.

Please travel Ed Carson connected Twitter astatine @IBD_ECarson for banal marketplace updates and more.

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